Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
43.3%
Certus
40.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.2%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-08-16 22:30
· Certus
GAIS vs MalmoGAIS vs Malmo
Predicted2-1
Actual0-1
Core Configuration [2.5] Big, Second Choice Handicap Primary [0/-0.5]
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0/-0.5]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this 17th round of the Swedish Super League in the 2026 season, GAIS will face Malmö FF at home. Data retrieved from the on-site network shows that the two sides currently have 23 points in the first 16 rounds. Garth is currently ranked 7th due to its goal difference advantage, while the traditional powerhouse Marmo unexpectedly slipped to 8th, indicating that the competition pattern of the league has changed this season.
Injury and lineup updates:
Ma Mo has suffered serious lineup turmoil recently. Pontus Jansson, the core captain of the defensive line, was declared out of the season due to a torn cruciate ligament in April this year. After entering August, the team successively let go of players such as Colin Rösler (transferred to AGF) and offensive mainstay Stefano Vecchia. As for Garth, the team's offensive point guard Gustav Lundgren was also absent for a long time due to a ruptured Achilles tendon as early as April. However, after half a season of running-in, the team's home game system has become more adaptable.
Tactics and market expectations:
Mamo's biggest problem this season is the collapse of the defense. They have conceded 27 goals in 16 league games, with a very high average number of goals conceded per game. Moreover, they just lost an upset 1-2 at home to Degerfors on August 9. Both defensive risks and morale are facing tests. Garth's recent home performance has been solid (just defeated Halmstad 2-0 on August 9). The market initially priced the home win at 2.04, with an implied winning rate of about 43.3%, and did not give Ma Mo enough respect for the away game concession.
When the directional confidence is in the gray area (43% < 45% threshold), considering the fragility of the Mamo defense line and the offensive counterattack it has the foundation to generate, the probability of a high score between the two sides is extremely high. [2.5] The big ball is the best defensive asset supported by both market and tactical logic.
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