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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 44.4%

Certus 58.0%

+13.6%

Secondary

Market —

Certus 40.0%

—

Result

Market 25.2%

Certus 32.4%

+7.2%

Settled

USL Championship · 2026-08-16 10:00 · Certus

Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay

Predicted 1-1

Actual 1-1

The bottom of the table is weak in offense, the core configuration [2.5] is thin, the second choice is handicapped away [+0.5/+1]

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary Guest[+0.5/+1] Result Draw Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

1.74

Market implied 57.5%

Draw

3.5

Market implied 28.6%

Away win

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

半場主客和

Home win

2.27

Market implied 44.1%

Draw

2.19

Market implied 45.7%

Away win

4.1

Market implied 24.4%

半場入球大細

[1.5]

Over

2.6

Market implied 38.5%

Under

1.43

Market implied 69.9%

[1.5/2]

Over

3.15

Market implied 31.7%

Under

1.3

Market implied 76.9%

[2.5]

Over

5.15

Market implied 19.4%

Under

1.11

Market implied 90.1%

入球大細

[2.5]

Over

1.66

Market implied 60.2%

Under

2.08

Market implied 48.1%

[2.5/3]

Over

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

Under

1.85

Market implied 54.1%

[3.5]

Over

2.65

Market implied 37.7%

Under

1.41

Market implied 70.9%

球隊入球大細

主 [1.5] 大

1.77

Market implied 56.5%

主 [1.5] 細

1.93

Market implied 51.8%

主 [2.5] 大

3.45

Market implied 29.0%

主 [2.5] 細

1.25

Market implied 80.0%

客 [1.5] 大

2.75

Market implied 36.4%

客 [1.5] 細

1.38

Market implied 72.5%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

1.75

Market implied 57.1%

主 [0.5] 細

1.95

Market implied 51.3%

主 [1.5] 大

4.6

Market implied 21.7%

主 [1.5] 細

1.14

Market implied 87.7%

客 [0.5] 大

2.4

Market implied 41.7%

客 [0.5] 細

1.5

Market implied 66.7%

讓球

主[-0.5/-1]

2.09

Market implied 47.8%

客[+0.5/+1]

1.7

Market implied 58.8%

讓球主客和

主[-1]

3.0

Market implied 33.3%

和[-1]

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

客[+1]

1.87

Market implied 53.5%

主[-2]

6.3

Market implied 15.9%

和[-2]

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

客[+2]

1.27

Market implied 78.7%

波膽

Home

1:0

7.5

2:0

8.75

2:1

6.7

3:0

15.0

3:1

12.0

3:2

21.0

4:0

35.0

4:1

28.0

4:2

40.0

5:0

60.0

5:1

50.0

5:2

80.0

Draw

0:0

12.0

1:1

6.7

2:2

11.5

3:3

40.0

Away

0:1

12.0

0:2

20.0

1:2

11.5

0:3

40.0

1:3

28.0

2:3

30.0

0:4

100.0

1:4

60.0

2:4

70.0

0:5

400.0

1:5

250.0

2:5

250.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

3.7

2:0

7.5

2:1

14.0

3:0

26.0

3:1

50.0

3:2

200.0

4:0

125.0

4:1

250.0

4:2

700.0

5:0

600.0

5:1

800.0

5:2

2000.0

Draw

0:0

2.78

1:1

6.7

2:2

50.0

3:3

700.0

Away

0:1

6.1

0:2

15.0

1:2

20.0

0:3

80.0

1:3

100.0

2:3

300.0

0:4

600.0

1:4

700.0

2:4

1000.0

0:5

2000.0

1:5

3000.0

2:5

5000.0

半全場

主-主

2.72

Market implied 36.8%

主-和

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

主-客

30.0

Market implied 3.3%

和-主

4.55

Market implied 22.0%

和-和

5.5

Market implied 18.2%

和-客

8.25

Market implied 12.1%

客-主

22.0

Market implied 4.5%

客-和

13.0

Market implied 7.7%

客-客

5.8

Market implied 17.2%

總入球

0球

12.0

Market implied 8.3%

1球

5.1

Market implied 19.6%

2球

3.55

Market implied 28.2%

3球

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

4球

4.7

Market implied 21.3%

5球

7.25

Market implied 13.8%

6球

14.5

Market implied 6.9%

7+球

22.0

Market implied 4.5%

入球單雙

單

1.88

Market implied 53.2%

雙

1.82

Market implied 54.9%

第一隊入球

主

1.56

Market implied 64.1%

無

12.0

Market implied 8.3%

客

2.39

Market implied 41.8%

Recent form

Oakland Roots

L D L L

Monterey Bay

L L L

Other matches same day

Team dossier

Monterey Bay

蒙特雷湾是太平洋的一个海湾，位于美国加利福尼亚州旧金山和聖荷西的南部海岸附近。聖塔克魯茲位于蒙特雷湾的北端。

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

Combat Strength and Current Situation Assessment: This game is the last-place battle in the West Coast of the United States Champions League (USLC). The home team Oakland Roots (currently ranked 11th in the West Coast) is in a sluggish situation recently. It has failed to win 5 consecutive league games, and has received zero seals from its opponents in the last 3 games. The offensive end is seriously down. The visiting team Monterey Bay (ranked 12th on the West Coast) is also in trouble. It has recently suffered 5 consecutive league losses, conceding 14 goals during this period, and its defense is ineffective. The two sides had a 2-2 draw in the League Cup in April, but after a few months, both teams' condition fell to rock bottom.

Market Pricing Bias: The market priced Auckland's home win at 1.74 (implied winning rate after removing the water is about 50.7%), giving greater support to the home team. This is mainly because the visiting team Monterey Bay has a miserable away record and a collapsed defense. However, the home team's recent "zero goal" performance cannot support such a high concession, and there is a great risk in Asia handing the ball out of the deep plate of the home team [-0.5/-1].

Tactics and Result Deduction: Considering that Auckland is extremely lacking of means to break the game, and Monterey Bay must first defend on the road in order to stop the bleeding, this game is likely to turn into a slow-paced boring battle. The market set the goal line at 2.5 goals and favored the flood (1.66), overestimating the ability of two teams with weak offenses to compete against each other. In terms of on-site configuration, [[2.5] Fine]'s bottom plate has extremely high gaming value; at the same time, the away team's [Guest [+0.5/+1]] is also a reasonable hedging defense choice.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay Oakland Roots vs Monterey Bay

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球

讓球主客和

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

Oakland Roots

Monterey Bay

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis