Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.0%
Ordo
38.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.3%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-02 10:00
· Ordo
Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh RiverhoundsOakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Predicted1-0
Actual0-1
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Lineup Building
Recently, Roots of Auckland has been playing a 4-2-3-1 system at home, relying on wing advances and second-chance attacks, but their defensive breakdown efficiency in positional play is rather mediocre; The Pittsburgh Bunds, on the other hand, continued their traditional 3-5-2 high-pressing and tough formation, focusing on stabilizing the defense and contracting the middle. Their tactical clashes often led to a tug-of-war in midfield.
Market Pricing and Game Bias
The latest market prices are home win 2.15, draw 3.05, away win 2.94 (after margin withdrawal, home win is only 41.0%, draw 28.9%). The three win-loss bets are in a typical 'gray area below 42% equivalence,' with a very high probability of a draw. For goal over/under, [2.5] under market pricing are as low as 1.70 (favoring low scores), with the top three correct scores at 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0 respectively. The market strongly agrees this match is a tight contest with low total goals.
Risk Control Allocation Logic
Given the probability of a home win below 45% and the significant risk of a draw, asset allocation directly on the winning direction carries higher risk. The most stable executable assets are [2.5] Small; For defensive assets, choose Home[0] (Asian Handicap Draw), which can protect against a run and put-back when predicting 1-0 or 1-1.
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