Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.9%
Ordo
37.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.6%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-02 09:30
· Ordo
New Mexico Utd vs Colorado Springs SwitchbacksNew Mexico Utd vs Colorado Springs Switchbacks
Predicted1-2
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Power Comparison
In this American Championship game, New Mexico United hosted Colorado Springs Road. From the market's implied probability perspective, the away team (38.9%) holds only a slight advantage over the home team (34.0%), with highly dispersed probabilities, making it a typical "extreme gray zone equilibrium" matchup.
Market Pricing and Goal Expectations
The baseline for total goals is set at [2.5] goals, with the high area (over) priced as low as 1.74, reflecting a high fund expectation for both teams' defensive stability and counterattack efficiency. In the favorite score rankings, 1:1 (6.2), 1:2 (8.0), and 2:1 (8.75) ranked high, further demonstrating that both teams have the tactical ability to score goals.
Risk Control Asset Allocation Strategy
According to the risk control decision tree, when the probability of winning or losing is less than 45%, directly asset allocation on "home-to-draw" or "handicap home-away draw" carries extremely high risk. Therefore, the core configuration chose the most significant pricing advantage and highest self-assessment confidence [2.5] large; The second option is to pair with Asian Handicap Away[0] for a level defense to hedge against the financial risk caused by a 1:1 draw.
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