Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
37.2%
Ordo
36.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.6%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-02 10:30
· Ordo
Las Vegas Lights vs Phoenix RisingLas Vegas Lights vs Phoenix Rising
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This game features the Las Vegas Lights hosting the Phoenix Revival in the American Championship League, with market pricing showing highly balanced pricing and a strong tendency toward over:
Directional Pricing Gray Zone (Equilibrium Standoff): The latest implied market probabilities are: Home win 37.2% | Draw 26.3% | Away win 36.4%. The market pricing for a home win (2.37) and away win (2.42) are almost evenly matched, with the win direction in the gray zone below a typical 42% probability, making one-way winning assets extremely risky.
Significant Over-Ball Indicator: The baseline for under goals is set at 2.5 goals, with high area (over) priced as low as 1.62 (after margin adjustment, the implied probability exceeds 58%), and the top three correct score scores (1:1, 2:1, 1:2) are all multi-goal combinations, reflecting the open attacking tactical style of both teams.
Allocation Logic: Due to insufficient confidence in direction, based on tactical decision trees, [2.5] Da is the core asset with the highest and most stable play rate (Primary); The secondary option is Asian Handicap Home[0] (draw handicap), using the Lights' home advantage to provide full drain and back-down defense in a draw.
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