Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.2%
Ordo
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.2%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-02 10:00
· Ordo
Orange County SC vs El Paso LocomotiveOrange County SC vs El Paso Locomotive
Predicted2-1
Actual2-0
Core setup [2.5] is large, secondary pick main [0] for hedging and draw with flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
From the market's implied probability and pricing structure, this Champions League match is a typical 'high-uncertainty tug-of-war':
Match-to-Loss Pattern in the Gray Zone: Home win implied probability 38.2%, away win 34.6%, draw 27.2%. The win rates on both sides are extremely close and both do not reach the 45% confidence threshold, so steering market risk is extremely high and it is not advisable to aggressively promote them.
High Goals Expected Tilt: On the 2.5-ball over-the-under-the-under-the-under, the high area (over) is priced at 1.74, with the most popular correct score scores concentrated at 1:1, 2:1, and 1:0. Reflecting market funds' expectations of gaps in both defensive lines, they tend to produce more goals for the team.
Allocation Strategy: According to decision tree guidelines, when direction confidence is insufficient, the core asset should be the [2.5] large with higher confidence (self-assessment 58%); Supplement with home[0] draw to hedge 1-1 against the risk of losing money, establishing a defensive composition.
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