Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.0%
Ordo
44.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.7%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Handicap Structure and Win Rate Ranges
In this USL Championship, Miami FC hosted Detroit City. The implied probability of market demargination is: home win 24.9%, draw 27.2%, away win 48.0%. Although Detroit City is favored by the market for away wins, their 48.0% win rate falls into the "gray zone" of 42%–52% data, and with a draw implied probability close to 28%, asset allocation solely on away wins carries uncontrolled risk.
Goal Output and Tactical Forecasts
The low zone (under) with under 2.5 goals is priced as low as 1.75. The top three favorites for correct score are 0:1 (6.1), 1:1 (6.1), and 1:2 (7.5), respectively, and the halftime correct score market pricing of 0:0 are only 2.39. Market pricing is trending toward lower pitches. Tactically, Detroit City is expected to play cautiously on the road, while Miami FC will focus on defensive contraction in the midfield and defense. The chances of a draw in the first half are high, while the second half tends to be a low-scoring contest with a single goal to decide the winner.
Configuration Optimization
Since the market pricing of winning on the road do not reach the 52% confidence threshold, according to decision tree principles, the top pick for the highest win rate asset is [2.5] Fine (estimated win rate 59%); For directional trading, choose Away[0] Asian handicap draw as the secondary defensive option to hedge against draw risk.
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