Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
35.9%
Certus
35.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
0.0%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-16 07:00
· Certus
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston BatteryPittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery
Predicted0-1
Actual3-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap away [0]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Record and ranking fundamentals: According to the latest data from the USL Championship East Division in the 2026 season, Charleston Battery ranks second with 19 games, 10 wins, 3 losses and 6 losses, with 33 points, and has outstanding offensive firepower (scoring 38 goals); while the home team Pittsburgh Terriers (Pittsburgh) Riverhounds) ranked fifth with 27 points in 19 games, with 20 goals scored and 20 goals lost, showing the ultimate "defensive and light attack" style of play.
Injuries and lineup dynamics: After multiple searches, there are currently no clear reports of major injuries and suspensions between the two sides. Therefore, the game will be highly dependent on the regular duels of the established tactical systems of both sides.
Market Pricing and Handicap Game: The market implied probability of win, draw and loss in this game is 34.2% for the main | 29.9% | 35.9% for the customer. The probability of a tie is close to 30%, and the probability limit in the three directions does not exceed 40%, which belongs to the standard "high tie risk gray area".
Tactical deduction and asset allocation: The Pittsburgh Terriers must rely on a tight defense at home to limit the offensive of the turret, and the pace of the game is expected to be significantly slowed down. Considering that the home team only scores about 2.1 goals per game, the goal score [2.5] has a very high probability of being played, making it the first choice asset. In addition, the overall points and strength of the fort are dominant, and the Asian Handicap's tie handicap (away [0]) provides a buffer for defensive draws, making it suitable as the second choice.
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