Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+11.7%
Secondary
Market
54.1%
Certus
50.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.2%
Result
Market
54.1%
Certus
50.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.2%
Settled
Austrian Bundesliga · 2026-08-16 01:30
· Certus
Sturm Graz vs Rheindorf AltachSturm Graz vs Rheindorf Altach
Predicted2-0
Actual1-0
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice of host and guest and home winner
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
✓
Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
Virtual credits are for statistical research only · Unlocks are permanent for this match
✓Unlocked · Loading deep analysis…
★
Deep analysis
🔒
Loading quantitative analysis
Failed to load analysis. Please refresh the page.
Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Current Situation:
Entering the 2026/27 Austrian League 1 season, the defending champion Sturm Graz achieved an unbeaten record of 1 win and 1 draw in the first two games of the season, ranking fifth in the league with 4 points; the team performed very solidly on the defensive end, conceding only 1 goal in the two games. SCR Altach is ranked 6th with 1 win, 1 loss and 3 points. It defeated its opponent 3-1 in the last game and showed a certain counterattack. The last time the two sides met in the league in March 2026, Graz won 2-0 at home. From a tactical point of view, Graz has the advantage in ball control, while Edaz will definitely deploy intensive defense when facing a strong opponent as a guest, waiting for opportunities to attack.
Market Pricing Bias Analysis:
The system-implied probability of the main win in this event after removing the margin is 54.1%, but the main win market pricing are 1.63 (the break-even point needs to reach 61.3%), which shows that there is an obvious negative premium for purely asset allocation on the main winning direction, and it is not appropriate to blindly chase low market pricing. At the same time, there is no Asian handicap (tie or shallow handicap) available for asset allocation in this event. Under the premise that neither side's performance at the start of the season was a big one, and Graz's past encounters mostly resulted in small wins, Goalscorer [2.5] (market pricing 1.84) has investment value for money and positive expectations that are much higher than the outcome.
Configuration Strategy:
In order to avoid the pricing trap of too low home win market pricing, the core configuration shifts to goal size, and it is recommended to select [2.5] size. The second choice is paired with a home-away tie. It is expected that Graz can win the game steadily with a small score of 1-0 or 2-0 due to its home dominance and defensive hardness.
Report content is protected; unauthorized copying or redistribution is prohibited.
