Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
29.9%
Certus
31.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.2%
Settled
Korean FA Cup · 2026-08-19 18:27
· Certus
FC Anyang vs Jeju SKFC Anyang vs Jeju SK
Predicted1-1
Actual2-1
Core Configuration [2.5] Fine, Second Choice Handicap Main [0] Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗Secondarymain[0]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Fundamentals and schedule rotation risks
The two sides met in the K1 League just 4 days ago (August 15, 2026), when Jeju SK defeated FC Anyang 2-0 at home. Currently in the K1 League, Jeju SK is ranked 5th with 34 points, while FC Anyang is ranked 7th with 30 points. The strength of the two armies is about the same. This game is the top 16 of the Korea Cup. With two matches in less than five days and the need to fight in different places, Jeju SK has a higher chance of partial lineup rotation, which adds uncertainty to the game.
2. Market pricing and handicap bias
The market in this game gives an extreme equilibrium price of 2.52 for both home and away wins. The implied winning rate is only about 35.0%, and the institution has no directional tilt at all. However, in the goal handicap, the fine market pricing under the [2.5] baseline have been reduced to 1.72 (the large market pricing are as high as 2.0), which clearly reflects the high vigilance of funds and institutions against the decline in offensive sharpness caused by the "cup match" and the rotation of both sides.
3. Tactical deduction and configuration logic
FC Anyang returns to its home court with a strong desire for revenge and victory, but its recent offensive firepower lacks stable output. In a cup competition environment, the risk of a draw and a tie is high, and the low-direction confidence defense logic is strictly followed. The first choice for this game is to score a goal of [2.5], and use the low-water range of institutional prevention to lock in value; the second choice is to use the handicap (Asian handicap) [0] to hedge the risk of a draw and draw within the regular time, and strive for the home team's expectation of being undefeated within the regular time.
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