Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.9%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
23.9%
Certus
29.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.7%
Settled
Korean FA Cup · 2026-08-19 17:57
· Certus
Chungnam Asan vs Daejeon CitizenChungnam Asan vs Daejeon Citizen
Predicted1-1
Actual2-3
The citizens of Daejeon clearly have doubts about their willingness to rotate. The core configuration is [2.5]. The second choice is handicapped. The main [+0.5/+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[+0.5/+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
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Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this round of 16 match of the South Korean FA Cup, the Chungnam Asan team of the K2 League will play at home against the Daejeon Citizens of the K1 League. According to the latest on-the-spot information (mid-August 2026), Daejeon Citizens lost 2-4 to FC Seoul in the league last weekend. They are currently stuck in the bottom half of the K1 League standings and are facing considerable pressure to relegation. After the game, Daejeon coach Hwang Sun-hong made it clear to the media that as the team has just experienced a wave of injuries and suffered huge physical exertion, the FA Cup in the middle of this week will have to make a larger lineup rotation to prepare for the more critical league games on the weekend.
As for Chungnam Asan, the team is currently ranked in the middle of the K2 League (28 points in 21 games), and its overall performance is relatively stable. Despite the level gap between the two sides, the South Korean FA Cup has always been a hotbed of "lower competition". The initial market market pricing offered Daejeon Citizen a low market pricing of 1.52 (implied winning rate of about 58.1%), which obviously overpriced the paper strength of the K1 team and did not fully reflect the comprehensive risks of Daejeon Citizen’s away games, intensive schedule, and declining fighting spirit.
Comprehensive tactical deduction shows that after the large-scale rotation of Daejeon Citizens, the offensive tacit understanding and finishing ability of the midfield and frontcourt will be greatly reduced; Chungnam Asan is expected to focus on low-post defensive counterattacks, and the two sides will easily fall into a midfield fight. Based on this, the confidence in the direction of the result of this game is low (the Daejeon citizens’ maximum winning probability is only estimated at 44%), so they skip the steering wheel. The core configuration first recommends "goal size [2.5] fine", and the second choice is the Asian handicap "main [+0.5/+1]" to cover the double defensive space in a draw and the away team only winning by one goal.
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