Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+14.4%
Secondary
Market
30.2%
Certus
32.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.2%
Result
Market
27.6%
Certus
31.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.4%
Settled
Korean FA Cup · 2026-08-19 17:57
· Certus
Gimpo FC vs Gimcheon SangmuGimpo FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu
Predicted1-1
Actual2-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and home [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryLord[+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Fundamentals and Fighting Will (Retrieve Facts):
This game is the top 16 of the South Korean FA Cup (August 19, 2026). According to the latest search data, the visiting team Jinquan Sangmu currently has 25 points in 23 games in the 2026 K1 League, ranking 11th, and is stuck in the quagmire of relegation. After a hard-fought draw with Incheon United 3 days ago, the chance of a major rotation of main players and strategic abandonment in this cup match is extremely high. The home team Gimpo FC is currently ranked in the middle of the K2 League (around 6th-7th place). As a low-level team playing at home, its fighting spirit is obviously stronger than its opponents. The physical exertion of the two sides was similar, but the pressure of relegation resulted in completely different strategic choices.
Tactics and injuries:
Jinquan Shangwu's offensive firepower has been weak in the recent league, and its away ability is limited; coupled with the possibility of sending in a substitute lineup, its frontcourt cooperation will further decline. Although Gimpo FC has recently suffered from injuries to foreign forward Djauma and suffered damage on the offensive end, the team's defensive performance has been resilient (the recent league draw with Cheonan City 1-1). It is expected that the two sides will be in a stalemate in terms of rhythm and it will be difficult to form a smooth attack.
Market Pricing Bias:
The market's implied winning rate for the away team is about 42.2%. In the context of the away team facing great relegation rotation pressure, this pricing may overestimate the true away strength of Jinquan Shangwu. At the same time, the baseline for goals in the game is 2.5 goals and the goal is hot (1.76), which is contrary to the recent sluggish forward lines of the two teams and the conservative attributes of the cup competition. Considering that the home team has a strong defense and weak offense and the visiting team is not interested in playing, this game has a strong potential for a "stuffy game".
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