Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
43.2%
Ordo
40.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.1%
Settled
Copa do Brasil · 2026-08-02 04:30
· Ordo
Vasco da Gama vs FluminenseVasco da Gama vs Fluminense
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Brazilian Cup, Vasco hosted Fluminense at home. From data structure and market implied probability analysis, the away win rate is only 43.2%, with a draw rate of 29.6%, showing extreme dispersion and reflecting the tug-of-war and cautious mindset in cup knockout matches.
Tactically, cup knockout matches are highly probing, with both sides expected to commit more defensive forces, making a 0-0 deadlock at halftime quite likely. As for the handicap, the low zone for under 2.5 goals is priced at only 1.63, indicating a clear intention to underscore the score. The top three correct scores (1:1, 0:1, 0:0) also confirm the tactical resilience.
Since confidence in the direction of victory is limited by the distribution of the draw side, [2.5] has the highest expected value and confidence in playing, and the secondary option paired with handicap asset allocation[0] provides draw-through defense.
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