Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.0%
Secondary
Market
49.7%
Ordo
54.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Result
Market
63.3%
Ordo
54.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.0%
Settled
Copa do Brasil · 2026-08-02 08:00
· Ordo
Santos vs Clube do RemoSantos vs Clube do Remo
Predicted2-0
Actual0-0
Core setup is home win, with [2.5] as the second pick for hedging tactics and controlling risks
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Skill Assessment
In this Brazilian Cup knockout stage, Santos hosted Remo. Santos possesses strong midfield possession and wing pressing at home. Facing Lemo, who has a hierarchical gap in squad depth and overall strength, the home team clearly controls the match. Remo is expected to adopt an extreme low-post defense and counterattack strategy away, aiming to squeeze Santos' space between the lanes and lengthen the stalemate.
Market Pricing and Bounce Structure
The market gives a home win of 1.39 (implied probability of 63.3%), which largely reflects Santos' home advantage and win rate base. In the implied score rankings, 1:0 (5.8), 2:0 (6.0), and 2:1 (6.9) rank in the top three, indicating that the market expects Santos to win by 1 to 2 goals. The total goals threshold is set at 2.5 goals, with the high zone (1.84) and low zone (1.86) priced similarly, reflecting the dual characteristics of cup knockout stage playoffs: the home team tends to dominate after leading, while the away team's scoring ability is limited.
Core Configuration Logic
Santos has a win rate of over 63%, with 'home win' being the most confident and actionable direction; Combining the cautious control style of cup knockout matches and the focus of correct score heat on low scores, he uses "[2.5] Fine" as his secondary defensive asset.
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