Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.0%
Secondary
Market
59.6%
Certus
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.4%
Result
Market
53.2%
Certus
55.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.0%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-09 07:00
· Certus
Lexington SC vs Phoenix RisingLexington SC vs Phoenix Rising
Predicted2-1
Actual1-0
Core configuration wins first, second choice [2.5] Big
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
The 2026 USL Championship regular season will feature Lexington SC hosting Phoenix Rising FC. According to the latest data cross-validated by the Internet, Lexington SC is currently ranked 6th in the West Coast with 25 points. According to the pre-match tone set by the club's official website, the team has been in an excellent winning streak (Red-Hot Form) recently, and its intention and momentum to grab points at home are very strong. The visiting team Phoenix Resurrection is temporarily ranked 11th with 22 points. Although goalkeeper Chituru Odunze was previously on loan from Charlotte FC in an attempt to improve defensive toughness, the overall away goal conceding rate is still high and the record is relatively struggling.
From the perspective of market structure, the initial implied pricing of the home win is about 53.2% (market pricing 1.66), which is highly consistent with the current points ranking and home and away strength differences between the two teams. In terms of the number of goals scored, the market gave "Big" a very low defensive level of 1.55 on the [2.5] baseline, indicating that institutions strongly expect this game to have a higher goal conversion rate. Combining tactics and market pricing, Lexington SC has the ability to dominate the game and is expected to suppress its opponents on the offensive end. The first choice for the core configuration is "Main Win", and the second choice is paired with "[2.5] Big" to perfectly cover high-scoring goal expectations.
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