Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.6%
Secondary
Market
51.0%
Certus
45.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.3%
Result
Market
51.0%
Certus
45.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.3%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-09 10:00
· Certus
Orange County SC vs Tampa Bay RowdiesOrange County SC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
Predicted1-2
Actual0-3
Core configuration [2.5] is large, the second choice wins
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Event background and market pricing analysis:
This AFC Champions League match pits SC Orange County against Temple Bay Thugs. Judging from the market's implied probability, the equivalent probability of an away win is 50.97% (market pricing 1.73), and the market has given the away team quite significant concessions. Home win 3.70 and draw 3.50 show that the home team still faces a greater risk of seesawing and pressure at home.
Tactics and Goal Structure Assessment:
The total goal baseline is set at 2.5 goals, the high zone (big goals) is priced at 1.67, and the low zone (small goals) is priced at 2.07. The market strongly favors a more open offensive and defensive situation in the first half and the whole game. Temple Bay Thugs have a strong ability to suppress on the offensive end (away team [1.5] big goal price 1.77), and SC Orange County's scoring probability cannot be ignored (home team [0.5] big goal price 1.36). Comprehensive high-frequency combination of wave and bile (1:1, 1:2, 0:1), this game has a high probability of forming an offensive and defensive pattern in which both sides score goals and the total number of goals exceeds 2 goals.
Asset Allocation Strategy:
Since the away win rate is around 51%, which is in the critical gray area in the direction of victory and defeat, the main line configuration gives priority to the more confident full-court [2.5] Big as the core asset; supplemented by away win as the directional secondary choice, it can effectively hedge against on-the-spot score fluctuations.
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