Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.0%
Secondary
Market
33.1%
Certus
31.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.1%
Result
Market
30.4%
Certus
33.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.4%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-09 08:30
· Certus
FC Tulsa vs Detroit CityFC Tulsa vs Detroit City
Predicted0-0
Actual0-1
Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice handicap home and away and away [+1]
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[+1]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Injury Updates:
According to the latest official and pre-match data retrieved from the Internet, as of the 2026 USL Championship season as of August 9, FC Tulsa temporarily ranks third on the West Coast with 29 points in 17 games; Detroit City ranks third on the East Coast with 28 points in 17 games. Tulsa's recent core strength lies in the resurgence of the defensive end. With the return of main defenders such as Cissoko and Souza Daniel from injuries, the team has set a record of 390 consecutive minutes without conceding a goal (4 consecutive clean sheets), conceding only 0.94 goals per game, making it one of the top defensive teams in the league. Detroit City also concedes just 1.00 goals per game, also ranking among the top five defenses in the league. Both teams are good at defensive counterattacks in the middle and low positions, and their efficiency in attacking difficult positions is average.
Market pricing and game bias:
The market's implied winning rate distribution is extremely tight (home win 36.6% | draw 30.0% | away win 33.3%), and the highest individual probability (home win 36.6%) is far below the 45% directional confidence threshold. At the same time, the baseline low zone pricing (thin) of the big and small ball 2.5 is as low as 1.59, reflecting the market’s low goal expectations for the clash between the two top defensive systems. In the absence of one-way certainty of victory and defeat and no Asian Handicap [0] opening, the extremely solid "big ball" on the defensive end is the asset with the highest degree of certainty.
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