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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Primary

Market 55.3%

Certus 62.0%

+6.7%

Secondary

Market 47.4%

Certus 45.0%

-2.4%

Result

Market 47.4%

Certus 45.0%

-2.4%

Settled

Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-08-14 04:00 · Certus

South Africa Women vs Nigeria Women South Africa Women vs Nigeria Women

Predicted 0-1

Actual 2-1

Core configuration [2.5] fine, second choice Nigeria wins away

Primary [2.5] Under Secondary Away Result Away Goals O/U [2.5] Under

Market reference pricing

主客和

Home win

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

Draw

3.1

Market implied 32.3%

Away win

1.86

Market implied 53.8%

半場主客和

Home win

4.6

Market implied 21.7%

Draw

2.03

Market implied 49.3%

Away win

2.32

Market implied 43.1%

半場入球大細

[1/1.5]

Over

2.55

Market implied 39.2%

Under

1.45

Market implied 69.0%

[1.5]

Over

2.98

Market implied 33.6%

Under

1.33

Market implied 75.2%

[1.5/2]

Over

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

Under

1.2

Market implied 83.3%

入球大細

[2.5]

Over

2.07

Market implied 48.3%

Under

1.67

Market implied 59.9%

[2.5/3]

Over

2.43

Market implied 41.2%

Under

1.49

Market implied 67.1%

[3.5]

Over

3.7

Market implied 27.0%

Under

1.22

Market implied 82.0%

球隊入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

1.54

Market implied 64.9%

主 [0.5] 細

2.3

Market implied 43.5%

主 [1.5] 大

3.65

Market implied 27.4%

主 [1.5] 細

1.23

Market implied 81.3%

客 [1.5] 大

2.05

Market implied 48.8%

客 [1.5] 細

1.68

Market implied 59.5%

客 [2.5] 大

4.3

Market implied 23.3%

客 [2.5] 細

1.16

Market implied 86.2%

球隊半場入球大細

主 [0.5] 大

2.75

Market implied 36.4%

主 [0.5] 細

1.38

Market implied 72.5%

客 [0.5] 大

1.87

Market implied 53.5%

客 [0.5] 細

1.83

Market implied 54.6%

客 [1.5] 大

5.15

Market implied 19.4%

客 [1.5] 細

1.11

Market implied 90.1%

讓球主客和

主[+1]

1.86

Market implied 53.8%

和[+1]

3.35

Market implied 29.9%

客[-1]

3.25

Market implied 30.8%

主[+2]

1.24

Market implied 80.6%

和[+2]

5.0

Market implied 20.0%

客[-2]

7.25

Market implied 13.8%

讓球

主[+0.5/+1]

1.68

Market implied 59.5%

客[-0.5/-1]

2.12

Market implied 47.2%

半場讓球

主[0/+0.5]

1.79

Market implied 55.9%

客[0/-0.5]

1.91

Market implied 52.4%

波膽

Home

1:0

9.75

2:0

19.0

2:1

12.0

3:0

40.0

3:1

35.0

3:2

40.0

4:0

150.0

4:1

100.0

4:2

125.0

5:0

600.0

5:1

500.0

5:2

500.0

Draw

0:0

7.5

1:1

6.1

2:2

14.5

3:3

60.0

Away

0:1

5.8

0:2

7.25

1:2

7.25

0:3

14.0

1:3

15.0

2:3

29.0

0:4

30.0

1:4

35.0

2:4

50.0

0:5

70.0

1:5

70.0

2:5

150.0

半場波膽

Home

1:0

5.8

2:0

19.0

2:1

30.0

3:0

125.0

3:1

200.0

3:2

500.0

4:0

800.0

4:1

900.0

4:2

2000.0

5:0

4000.0

5:1

5000.0

5:2

5000.0

Draw

0:0

2.37

1:1

6.9

2:2

70.0

3:3

1000.0

Away

0:1

3.65

0:2

7.25

1:2

14.5

0:3

35.0

1:3

70.0

2:3

300.0

0:4

150.0

1:4

400.0

2:4

900.0

0:5

700.0

1:5

1000.0

2:5

4000.0

半全場

主-主

6.6

Market implied 15.2%

主-和

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

主-客

26.0

Market implied 3.8%

和-主

8.5

Market implied 11.8%

和-和

4.5

Market implied 22.2%

和-客

4.25

Market implied 23.5%

客-主

35.0

Market implied 2.9%

客-和

14.0

Market implied 7.1%

客-客

2.78

Market implied 36.0%

總入球

0球

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

1球

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

2球

3.2

Market implied 31.2%

3球

3.9

Market implied 25.6%

4球

6.0

Market implied 16.7%

5球

10.0

Market implied 10.0%

6球

24.0

Market implied 4.2%

7+球

35.0

Market implied 2.9%

入球單雙

單

1.9

Market implied 52.6%

雙

1.8

Market implied 55.6%

第一隊入球

主

2.66

Market implied 37.6%

無

7.5

Market implied 13.3%

客

1.58

Market implied 63.3%

Recent form

South Africa Women

L W D L

Nigeria Women

L W W L

2026-08-10 喀麥隆女足 1-0
2026-08-06 埃及女足 2-6
2026-08-02 贊比亞女足 1-0
2026-07-29 馬拉維女足 2-3

Other matches same day

01:00 · 科特迪瓦女足 vs 加納女足 (1-2)

Team dossier

South Africa Women

南非国家女子足球队是代表南非参加国际女子足球比赛的国家队，由南非足球协会主管。球队共参加过两届国际足联女子世界杯，最好成绩是在2023年，进入16强；参加过13届非洲女子国家杯，于2022年夺得桂冠；参加过两届奥运会，最好成绩是在2012年，排第10名。

· Founded 1993

Nigeria Women

View league profile →

Team dossier content is sourced from public encyclopedias and is for reference only.

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Dimension	Market implied %	Certus %	Premium rate

Actuarial narrative

This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.

In-depth analysis

This event is a qualifying play-off for the 2026 Women's Africa Cup (competing for a spot in the 2027 World Cup). Both sides suffered setbacks in the quarterfinals. According to the latest information, the Nigerian women's football team lost to Cameroon 0-1, while the South African women's football team lost 1-2 to the host Morocco. As the traditional strong teams of African women's football, after the two teams failed to directly advance to the semi-finals, this campaign became the last line of defense leading to the World Cup. Under the high pressure of a life-and-death battle, both sides must put defense first to avoid conceding goals prematurely.

Judging from market pricing, although Nigeria's away win (1.75) is supported, its implied winning rate is only about 50.4%, which means that institutions have doubts about whether it can easily defeat its opponents within regular time. In addition, there is no tie handicap ([0]) in the handicap, so the defensive space is limited. Combined with the reality that both sides have been hindered on the offensive end in the knockout stage recently, this game is expected to be a boring battle with more tactical games than open attacks. Under the gray zone confidence level, the number of goals scored is difficult to cross the baseline, and the low-volatility goal size [2.5] is the most defensive high-quality asset. The second choice of Nigeria's away win is a reasonable direction game.

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Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

South Africa Women vs Nigeria Women South Africa Women vs Nigeria Women

Market reference pricing

主客和

半場主客和

半場入球大細

入球大細

球隊入球大細

球隊半場入球大細

讓球主客和

讓球

半場讓球

波膽

半場波膽

半全場

總入球

入球單雙

第一隊入球

Recent form

Team dossier

South Africa Women

Nigeria Women

Deep analysis

Asset weight allocation

Full-time HAD probabilities

Market implied pricing vs Certus probability

Market recommendations

Actuarial narrative

In-depth analysis