Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+14.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Certus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
66.8%
Certus
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.3%
Settled
UE Cup · 2026-08-14 02:45
· Certus
Hearts vs BenficaHearts vs Benfica
Predicted1-3
Actual1-1
Core configuration [3.5] is large, second choice handicap away [-1/-1.5]
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[-1/-1.5]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Certus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Certus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is the second leg of the third qualifying round of the 2026-27 Europa League. In the first round, Benfica defeated Hess 6-1 at home, holding an absolute lead of 5 goals. The suspense of promotion has basically ended.
Tactical and injury information (latest retrieved in August 2026):
Hess’ defense is incomplete: The team is currently facing a severe injury and reconstruction crisis. Craig Halkett, the absolute core of the defense, and midfielder Marc Leonard both suffered serious Achilles tendon ruptures and are expected to be absent until 2027. In addition, many defensive backbones such as Frankie Kent and Beni Baningime also left the team this summer. The team's defense was fragile and was completely penetrated in the first round.
Benfica's dimensionality reduction attack: With a huge advantage, Benfica will inevitably rotate significantly in this game to retain their league strength. However, its "B team" lineup is still luxurious, with emerging attackers such as Jhon Duran, Gianluca Prestianni and Andreas Schjelderup on the first-round goal list who are eager to compete. The personal abilities of this group of players are still a dimensionality-reducing blow to the Soviet Union's relatively complete defense.
Market Pricing and Handicap Game:
The market's customer win market pricing are as low as 1.32 (implied probability is about 66.8%), which has completely blocked the profit margin in the customer win direction. Since the nature of the event is a cup, according to the system risk control rules, "fine" disks with a baseline as high as 3.5 are prohibited from being used as core configurations. Considering that Hess must be aggressive when fighting for honor at home, and its defense is unable to withstand the impact of the visiting team, it is easy for both sides without promotion pressure to achieve a wide-open result. [3.5] The market’s high market pricing (2.13) are the most cost-effective entry point.
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